- United Kingdom
Dr Robert Seely
King's College London, War Studies, Graduate Student
- University of Oxford, The Changing Character of War Programme, Department Memberadd
- Dr Robert Seely writes academically and journalistically on forms of non-conventional warfare, Russian warfare, hybri... moreDr Robert Seely writes academically and journalistically on forms of non-conventional warfare, Russian warfare, hybrid and asymmetric warfare.Dr Seely has a PhD in International Security Studies, King's College London. His work examined contemporary Russian conflict and the unification of traditional and non-conventional warfare into what Seely argued is a new way of war. His research focused the application of this theory of conflict in Ukraine.Seely was a foreign correspondent in the former Soviet Union from 1990 to 1994 for The Times and afterwards as a special correspondent for the Washington Post. He is a Member of Parliament in Great Britain, where he represents the Isle of Wight constituency. He has been on the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee since February 2018. He leads the all-Party groups on both Russia and Ukraine. He is the author of Russo-Chechen Conflict 1800-2000: A Deadly Embrace, published by Frank Cass Ltd in 2001. In 2002 he co-authored: War and Humanitarian Action in Chechnya, published by the Thomas J. Watson Center of International Studies, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.edit
Research Interests:
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THIS PAPER PROVIDES a guide to Russian subversive warfare by examining, in detail, three tranches of leaked emails apparently belonging to Kremlin officials ─ including, primarily and critically, Vladislav Surkov, the man known as... more
THIS PAPER PROVIDES a guide to Russian subversive warfare by examining, in detail, three tranches of leaked emails apparently belonging to Kremlin officials ─ including, primarily and critically, Vladislav Surkov, the man known as President Vladimir Putin’s ‘Rasputin’ ─ who have been closely involved with the Eastern Ukraine conflict, and in particular with the political and economic management of two statelets established by the Kremlin in Donetsk and Luhansk.1 In addition, it examines the strategy and tactics of Russia’s political subversion in the rest of Ukraine. Since the leaking of this information in the media, the emails have become known as ‘The Surkov Leaks’.
This Occasional Paper is designed to be an aid for researchers, academics, journalists, campaigners, and all those interested in the structure of political subversion, which at times is also called ‘hybrid warfare’. It has often been difficult to find hard evidence of Russian political manipulation, due to the covert nature of elements of this form of conflict. This paper presents leaked evidence, in a wealth of detail, to show a tactical snapshot of subversion, from the costs of demonstrations, to messaging lines, to the tactics of violent destabilisation.
This Occasional Paper is designed to be an aid for researchers, academics, journalists, campaigners, and all those interested in the structure of political subversion, which at times is also called ‘hybrid warfare’. It has often been difficult to find hard evidence of Russian political manipulation, due to the covert nature of elements of this form of conflict. This paper presents leaked evidence, in a wealth of detail, to show a tactical snapshot of subversion, from the costs of demonstrations, to messaging lines, to the tactics of violent destabilisation.
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A study co-authored with James Rogers from the Henry Jackson Society on Britain's role in the world post-Brexit. Published by the Henry Jackson Society.
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Peer-reviewed paper which aims to provide the first comprehensive and concise definition of Contemporary Russian Conflict. The report is based on Russian Military Doctrine, strategic and foreign concepts papers and writing by senior... more
Peer-reviewed paper which aims to provide the first comprehensive and concise definition of Contemporary Russian Conflict. The report is based on Russian Military Doctrine, strategic and foreign concepts papers and writing by senior political and military leaders.
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Article in The Daily Telegraph that provides an overview and brief history of Russian subversion and information warfare activities from Lenin to Putin
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In this article for CAPX (https://capx.co), I argue that: First, Russian strategy is holistic, and so our response must be too. Second, the UK can't just sit and stare at the burgeoning Russian threat. Third, an imploding US... more
In this article for CAPX (https://capx.co), I argue that:
First, Russian strategy is holistic, and so our response must be too.
Second, the UK can't just sit and stare at the burgeoning Russian threat.
Third, an imploding US presidency could turn a series of crises into abject disaster - and Trump is under severe pressure over his links to the Kremlin.
Finally, we need to develop ideas and policies to respond to these threats – yet we are fumbling for answers.
For a Russian language version of this article, please see: https://nv.ua/opinion/sili/britanii-pora-osoznat-uhrozu-rossii--2443240.html
First, Russian strategy is holistic, and so our response must be too.
Second, the UK can't just sit and stare at the burgeoning Russian threat.
Third, an imploding US presidency could turn a series of crises into abject disaster - and Trump is under severe pressure over his links to the Kremlin.
Finally, we need to develop ideas and policies to respond to these threats – yet we are fumbling for answers.
For a Russian language version of this article, please see: https://nv.ua/opinion/sili/britanii-pora-osoznat-uhrozu-rossii--2443240.html
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Given the situation with Syria and elsewhere, please see a draft of my latest peer-reviewed piece in the Royal United Services Institute publication, the RUSI Journal. The article attempts a comprehensive definition of contemporary... more
Given the situation with Syria and elsewhere, please see a draft of my latest peer-reviewed piece in the Royal United Services Institute publication, the RUSI Journal. The article attempts a comprehensive definition of contemporary Russian warfare which I hope will contribute towards a wider debate on the subject amongst researchers, academics, soldiers and historians.
Here is the abstract:
In this article, Robert Seely offers a comprehensive assessment of what has become known as Russian 'hybrid' warfare. First, he asks whether 'hybrid' is the most appropriate term to use when studying contemporary Russian warfare. Second, he introduces a method of categorisation to help make sense of the considerable diversity of Russian tools of war. Finally, he suggests that contemporary Russian warfare is more than just war, and amounts to a reinvention of strategic art, where the tools of state power are integrated into a single whole.
This is a manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in the RUSI Journal, 3 April 2017. The Version of Record is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2017.1301634
Here is the abstract:
In this article, Robert Seely offers a comprehensive assessment of what has become known as Russian 'hybrid' warfare. First, he asks whether 'hybrid' is the most appropriate term to use when studying contemporary Russian warfare. Second, he introduces a method of categorisation to help make sense of the considerable diversity of Russian tools of war. Finally, he suggests that contemporary Russian warfare is more than just war, and amounts to a reinvention of strategic art, where the tools of state power are integrated into a single whole.
This is a manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in the RUSI Journal, 3 April 2017. The Version of Record is available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03071847.2017.1301634
Research Interests:
By all accounts the relationship between President Donald Trump and the Kremlin holds the makings of a dark, Hollywood thriller. Trump is a US President at war with his own intelligence agencies, whilst denying – only to later admit –... more
By all accounts the relationship between President Donald Trump and the Kremlin holds the makings of a dark, Hollywood thriller. Trump is a US President at war with his own intelligence agencies, whilst denying – only to later admit – Russian interference in the election. Freshly inaugurated, he already faces comparisons to a modern-day Manchurian Candidate, referring to the 1959 novel about a brainwashed president controlled by sinister, external forces.
But how fair is this? And do we really know what the Russians are up to?
But how fair is this? And do we really know what the Russians are up to?
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In this confused era of unconventional confrontations, can music be an active tool of conflict? There may be reason to argue that it, and culture more generally, are increasingly important in the battle for hearts and minds. This... more
In this confused era of unconventional confrontations, can music be an active tool of conflict? There may be reason to argue that it, and culture more generally, are increasingly important in the battle for hearts and minds. This article explains why.
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In public Western politicians, commentators and military officials have shown a marked reluctance to use the term ‘cold war’, despite the sharp deterioration in relations between the US, NATO and Russia. This article asks; why are... more
In public Western politicians, commentators and military officials have shown a marked reluctance to use the term ‘cold war’, despite the sharp deterioration in relations between the US, NATO and Russia. This article asks; why are Westerners so reluctant to use the ‘cold war’ tag?
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In this blog, I argue that there is a tendency in the West to see events in binary terms of either/or - this is especially true in Western military and academic circles. Yet as scholars of Russia note, there is often a duality to Russian... more
In this blog, I argue that there is a tendency in the West to see events in binary terms of either/or - this is especially true in Western military and academic circles. Yet as scholars of Russia note, there is often a duality to Russian action, although perhaps it is better to describe this as being polysemous: having multiple meanings, some of which do not perfectly overlap or synchronise.
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Over 18 months into Russia’s not-so-very-proxy, proxy war in Ukraine, there remains a thriving and fascinating debate over the tools of conflict that Russia uses, how one describes those tools and where Russia’s next ‘target’ may be. ...... more
Over 18 months into Russia’s not-so-very-proxy, proxy war in Ukraine, there remains a thriving and fascinating debate over the tools of conflict that Russia uses, how one describes those tools and where Russia’s next ‘target’ may be.
... The composition of Russia’s hybrid war tools change with the political terrain. Perhaps the best example of that is in the Baltic Sea area, the most complex, interesting and possibly dangerous area of confrontation, with the possible exception now of Syria. Here the different variants of Russian hybrid war overlap as Russia applies different tools, and different rules, to its relations with different states.
... The composition of Russia’s hybrid war tools change with the political terrain. Perhaps the best example of that is in the Baltic Sea area, the most complex, interesting and possibly dangerous area of confrontation, with the possible exception now of Syria. Here the different variants of Russian hybrid war overlap as Russia applies different tools, and different rules, to its relations with different states.
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This article examines the links between Soviet Active Measures disinformation and subversion warfare, and Russian 'hybrid' warfare.
Research Interests: Russian Studies, Russian Foreign Policy, Asymmetrical Warfare, Asymmetric Warfare, Hybrid War, and 3 moreNon-conventional Warfare, HYBRID THREATS, CYBER WARFARE AND NATO’S COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH FOR COUNTERING 21st CENTURY THREATS – MAPPING THE NEW FRONTIER OF GLOBAL RISK AND SECURITY MANAGEMENT, and Russian Hybrid Warfare
This article argues that the current ways of conceptualizing and understanding Russian warfare are flawed. To improve this, this article reviews the current ways of approaching Russian war- fare from post-independence to after Ukraine.... more
This article argues that the current ways of conceptualizing and understanding Russian warfare are flawed. To improve this, this article reviews the current ways of approaching Russian war- fare from post-independence to after Ukraine. Then, we investigate Russian warfare from the four spectrums of military, informa- tional, economic, and energy, and from political influence oper- ations. From this, we propose the concept of Full-Spectrum Conflict that captures the use of violent and non-violent means as well as the conduct of conflict in differing degrees of intensity from peace to war and the space in between. This remedies the problem of con- ceptualizing, and hopefully understanding, the conduct of Russian conflict.
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Warfare is changing in the digitally saturated Information Age. This podcast is of a seminar by Robert Seely delivered at Oxford University's Changing Character of War programme on 9 August 2013. It explores how conflict is becoming more... more
Warfare is changing in the digitally saturated Information Age. This podcast is of a seminar by Robert Seely delivered at Oxford University's Changing Character of War programme on 9 August 2013. It explores how conflict is becoming more complex as the power of open source information and the Internet rewrites the rules of conflict. Click here for the podcast: http://podcasts.ox.ac.uk/influence-operations-and-psyops-information-warfare-21st-century